Assam exit polls point to decisive NDA return ahead of May 4 counting
- Most exit polls project BJP-led NDA crossing majority comfortably in 126-seat assembly
- Several agencies indicate NDA nearing or exceeding two-thirds majority
- Congress-led alliance projected to remain distant second across surveys
- AIUDF expected to decline significantly in most projections
- Final results will be declared on May 4
Exit polls for the 2026 Assam Assembly elections indicate a decisive advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, with most projections suggesting a comfortable victory and a possible two-thirds majority in the 126-member assembly. The official results will be announced on May 4.
Polling across all constituencies was completed on April 9, and the exit poll data released on April 29 shows a broad consensus among agencies, in contrast to the sharply divided projections seen in other states.
According to Today’s Chanakya, the NDA is projected to secure between 93 and 111 seats, while Axis My India places the alliance in a range of 88 to 100 seats. JVC and Matrize offer similar estimates, indicating a strong and consistent lead for the ruling coalition. Even the lowest projections place the NDA well above the majority mark of 64 seats.
The Congress-led alliance, including the All India United Democratic Front, is projected to secure significantly fewer seats, typically ranging between 24 and 40 across different surveys. Smaller parties and independents are expected to have a limited presence in the assembly.
| Agency | NDA (BJP+) | Congress+ | Others |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today’s Chanakya | 93–111 | 11–32 | 0–2 |
| JVC | 88–101 | 23–33 | 0–3 |
| Axis My India | 88–100 | 24–36 | 0–3 |
| Matrize | 85–95 | 25–32 | 6–12 |
| P-MARQ | 82–94 | 30–40 | 1–5 |
| Poll of Polls | ~90 | ~30 | ~4 |
The election has largely been framed as a contest between Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi. Exit poll trends suggest that the incumbent’s campaign, centered on development initiatives and regional identity, has resonated strongly with voters across both rural and urban constituencies.
Assam recorded a high voter turnout of around 85 percent, one of the highest in its electoral history. While high participation is often associated with anti-incumbency, several pollsters interpret the turnout as a sign of consolidation in favor of the ruling alliance.
The role of the All India United Democratic Front, led by Badruddin Ajmal, appears to have diminished in this election cycle, according to most projections. Analysts suggest that the contest has become more bipolar, reducing the space for smaller regional players.
If the exit poll projections are reflected in the final results, the outcome would mark a third consecutive term for the BJP-led alliance in Assam, reinforcing its position in the northeastern region. It would also shape the direction of policy initiatives that have been central to the current government’s agenda.
Despite the apparent consensus among pollsters, past elections have shown that exit poll predictions can diverge from actual results. The final outcome will be confirmed only after counting begins on May 4.